Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Beyond Six Billion: Projecting the World's Population

Beyond 6 billion

Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council; John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, editors

Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, National Research Council, Council, National Research, Projections, Panel on Population

National Research Council (U.S.); Bongaarts, John, 1945-; Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1944-

John Bongaarts; Rodolfo A Bulatao; National Research Council (U.S.)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA

Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP)

Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press

Washington, D.C, District of Columbia, 2000

1 edition, Washington, DC, July 1, 2000

United States, United States of America

1, US, 2000

Includes bibliographical references and index.
"The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine."

Beyond Six Billion Asks What Such Projections Really Say, Why They Say It, Whether They Can Be Trusted, And Whether They Can Be Improved. The Book Includes Analysis Of How Well Past United Nations And World Bank Projections Have Panned Out, What Errors Have Occurred, And Why They Have Happened. Focusing On Fertility As One Key To Accurate Projections, The Committee Examines The Transition From High, Constant Fertility To Low Fertility And Discusses Whether Developing Countries Will Eventually Attain The Very Low Levels Of Births Now Observed In The Industrialized World. Other Keys To Accurate Projections, Predictions Of Lengthening Life Span And Of The Impact Of International Migration On Specific Countries, Are Also Explored In Detail. How Good Are Our Methods Of Population Forecasting? How Can We Cope With The Inevitable Uncertainty? What Population Trends Can We Anticipate? Beyond Six Billion Illuminates Not Only The Forces That Shape Population Growth But Also The Accuracy Of The Methods We Use To Quantify These Forces And The Uncertainty Surrounding Projections. This Book Will Be Important To Policy Makers, Demographers, Social Scientists, Population Activists, Journalists, And Individuals Interested In This Important And Controversial Discussion.--jacket. Current World Projections -- Accuracy Of Past Projections -- Fertility -- Mortality -- International Migration -- The Uncertainty Of Projections -- Implications -- Overview Of World Projections -- Forces Driving Population Growth -- How Population Projections Are Made -- All Projections Suffer From Uncertainty -- Guide To The Report -- The Accuracy Of Past Projections -- Projected Population Size -- Correlates Of Projection Errors -- Projected Age Structures -- Projected Component Rates -- Transitional Fertility -- Fertility Change In Developing Regions -- Reasons For Fertility Decline -- Current Methods Of Projecting Fertility -- Fertility Transition In The 21st Century -- Posttransition Fertility -- Fertility Levels And Past Trends -- Projected Fertility Trends -- Interpreting Fertility Trends -- Explaining Fertility Trends -- Possible Policy Responses -- Future Technological Developments -- Mortality -- Current Levels Of Life Expectancy -- Mortality Transition -- Mortality Projections -- Future Trends In Life Expectancy -- International Migration -- Current Levels And Trends -- Future Migration Trends -- Projecting Migration -- Improving Migration Projections -- The Uncertainty Of Population Forecasts -- The Scenario Approach And Its Problems -- Thinking About Forecast Errors -- Three Approaches To Constructing Predictive Distributions -- New Estimates Of Uncertainty Based On Ex Post Analysis -- Computer Software Packages For Projecting Population -- Accuracy Of Population Projections From The 1970s To The 1990s. Panel On Population Projections, John Bongaarts And Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Editors. The Project That Is The Subject Of This Report Was Approved By The Governing Board Of The National Research Council, Whose Members Are Drawn From The Councils Of The National Academy Of Sciences, The National Academy Of Engineering, And The Institute Of Medicine. Includes Bibliographical References And Index.

xviii, 236 p. : 24 cm
"The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine."
Includes bibliographical references and index
Current World Projections -- Accuracy of Past Projections -- Fertility -- Mortality -- International Migration -- The Uncertainty of Projections -- Implications -- Overview of World Projections -- Forces Driving Population Growth -- How Population Projections Are Made -- All Projections Suffer from Uncertainty -- Guide to the Report -- The Accuracy of Past Projections -- Projected Population Size -- Correlates of Projection Errors -- Projected Age Structures -- Projected Component Rates -- Transitional Fertility -- Fertility Change in Developing Regions -- Reasons for Fertility Decline -- Current Methods of Projecting Fertility -- Fertility Transition in the 21st Century -- Posttransition Fertility -- Fertility Levels and Past Trends -- Projected Fertility Trends -- Interpreting Fertility Trends -- Explaining Fertility Trends -- Possible Policy Responses -- Future Technological Developments -- Mortality -- Current Levels of Life Expectancy -- Mortality Transition -- Mortality Projections -- Future Trends in Life Expectancy -- International Migration -- Current Levels and Trends -- Future Migration Trends -- Projecting Migration -- Improving Migration Projections -- The Uncertainty of Population Forecasts -- The Scenario Approach and Its Problems -- Thinking About Forecast Errors -- Three Approaches to Constructing Predictive Distributions -- New Estimates of Uncertainty Based on Ex Post Analysis -- Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population -- Accuracy of Population Projections from the 1970s to the 1990s -- Predicting the Pace of Fertility Decline -- The Effect of Projection Error in Life Expectancy -- Simulating Migration Projections -- Estimating Expected Errors from Past Errors

Beyond Six Billion's seven chapters assess population projections, including demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration, and the uncertainty of population forecasts and forecast errors. Other population topics with assorted humanitarian, civilizational, or environmental implications, such as carrying capacities, limiting factors, and overshoot or collapse ramifications are largely, or in some cases entirely, absent, so that readers interested in the latter issues will need to turn to other sources.

"Future trends in population size, age structure, births, and other demographic variables are of interest to a wide range of analysts." (first sentence of Executive Summary)

2024-07-01