Managing safety of diverse systems requires decision-making under uncertainties and risks. Such systems are typically characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous risks, discontinuities, irreversibility, practically irreducible uncertainties, and rare events with catastrophic consequences. Traditional scientific approaches rely on data from real observations and experiments; yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and experiments are usually impossible. Therefore, science-based support for addressing such new class of problems needs to replace the traditional “deterministic predictions” analysis by new methods and tools for designing decisions that are robust against the involved uncertainties and risks. The new methods treat uncertainties explicitly by using “synthetic” information derived by integration of “hard” elements, including available data, results of possible experiments, and formal representations of scientific facts, with “soft” elements based on diverse representations of scenarios and opinions of public, stakeholders, and experts. The volume presents such effective new methods, and illustrates their applications in different problem areas, including engineering, economy, finance, agriculture, environment, and policy making.

lgrsnf/F_Finance/FC_Credit, Risk/Ermoliev Yu., et al. (eds.) Managing safety of heterogeneous systems. Decisions under uncertainties and risks (LNEMS0658, Springer, 2012)(ISBN 9783642228834)(O)(403s)_G_.pdf

nexusstc/Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems: Decisions under Uncertainties and Risks/e63704607ba8be1b51ac6d9f558ae2a6.pdf

scihub/10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1.pdf

Ermoliev, Yuri (edt); Makowski, Marek (edt); Marti, Kurt (edt)

Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti, editors

I︠U︡. M. Ermolʹev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti

Love Ekenberg; Karin Hansson; Mats Danielson

I︠U︡riĭ Mikhaĭlovich Ermolʹev

Spektrum Akademischer Verlag. in Springer-Verlag GmbH

Steinkopff. in Springer-Verlag GmbH

Springer Nature

Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems -- 658, Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems -- 658., Heidelberg, New York, Germany, 2012

Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems, 658, Berlin ; New York, ©2012

Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2012

Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems, 2012, Berlin, Heidelberg

Springer Nature, Berlin, 2012

Germany, Germany

1, 20120201

Kolxo3 -- 41-56

sm22823562

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Includes bibliographical references.

Robust Management Of Heterogeneous Systems Under Uncertainties / Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, And Kurt Marti -- Systemic Risk And Security Management / Yuri Ermoliev And Detlof Von Winterfeldt -- Robust Decisions Under Risk For Imprecise Probabilities / Włodzimierz Ogryczak -- Combining Second-order Belief Distributions With Qualitative Statements In Decision Analysis / Ola Caster And Love Ekenberg -- An Econometric Model Based On The Maxmin Expected Utility Model : An Application To Earthquake Insurance / Toshio Fujimi And Hirozaku Tatano -- Modeling Technological Change Under Increasing Returns And Uncertainty / Andrei Gritsevskyi And Yuri Ermoliev -- Stochastic Programming Perspective On The Agency Problems Under Uncertainty /alexei A. Gaivoronski And Adrian Werner -- Sustainable Agriculture, Food Security, And Socio-economic Risks In Ukraine / Oleksandra Borodina ... [et Al.] -- Multiple-criteria Decision Support System For Siemianówka Reservoir Under Uncertainties / Adam Kiczko And Tatiana Ermolieva -- A Deterministic Algorithm For Global Optimization / Yury Evtushenko And Mikhail Posypkin -- Robust Optimization By Fuzzy Linear Programming / Masahiro Inuiguchi -- Various Types Of Objective Functions Of Clustering For Uncertain Data / Yasunori Endo And Sadaaki Miyamoto -- Stochastic Optimal Open-loop Feedback Control Of Dynamic Structural Systems Under Stochastic Uncertainty / Kurt Marti And Ina Stein -- Modeling And Processing Of Uncertainty In Civil Engineering By Means Of Fuzzy Randomness / Uwe Reuter ... [et Al.] -- Optimal Design And Sensitivity Of Large Spatial Trusses Under Uncertainty / Simone Zier -- Sustainable Agriculture In China : Estimation And Reduction Of Nitrogen Impacts / Günther Fischer ... [et Al.] -- Evaluation Of Portfolio Of Financial And Insurance Intruments : Simulation Of Uncertainty / Piotr Nowak, Maciej Romaniuk, And Tatiana Ermolieva -- Pricing Catastrophe Bonds Under Safety Constraints / Shuo Liu And Liyan Han. Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti, Editors. Includes Bibliographical References.

Front Matter....Pages i-xxiii
Robust Management of Heterogeneous Systems under Uncertainties....Pages 1-16
Front Matter....Pages 17-17
Systemic Risk and Security Management....Pages 19-49
Robust Decisions under Risk for Imprecise Probabilities....Pages 51-66
Combining Second-Order Belief Distributions with Qualitative Statements in Decision Analysis....Pages 67-87
An Econometric Model Based on the Maxmin Expected Utility Model: An Application to Earthquake Insurance....Pages 89-106
Front Matter....Pages 107-107
Modeling Technological Change Under Increasing Returns and Uncertainty....Pages 109-136
Stochastic Programming Perspective on the Agency Problems Under Uncertainty....Pages 137-167
Sustainable Agriculture, Food Security, and Socio-Economic Risks in Ukraine....Pages 169-185
Multiple-Criteria Decision Support System for Siemianówka Reservoir under Uncertainties....Pages 187-201
Front Matter....Pages 203-203
A Deterministic Algorithm for Global Optimization....Pages 205-218
Robust Optimization by Fuzzy Linear Programming....Pages 219-239
Various Types of Objective Functions of Clustering for Uncertain Data....Pages 241-259
Front Matter....Pages 261-261
Stochastic Optimal Open-Loop Feedback Control of Dynamic Structural Systems under Stochastic Uncertainty....Pages 263-289
Modeling and Processing of Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by Means of Fuzzy Randomness....Pages 291-306
Optimal Design and Sensitivity of Large Spatial Trusses Under Uncertainty....Pages 307-324
Front Matter....Pages 325-325
Sustainable Agriculture in China: Estimation and Reduction of Nitrogen Impacts....Pages 327-350
Evaluation of Portfolio of Financial and Insurance Instruments: Simulation of Uncertainty....Pages 351-366
Pricing Catastrophe Bonds under Safety Constraints....Pages 367-378

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
Erscheinungsdatum: 01.02.2012

2012-08-21